Heatwave dynamics in Türkiye: a long-term spatiotemporal analysis of frequency, duration, and intensity (1970-2022)

This study examines the spatial and temporal characteristics of heatwaves (HWs) in Türkiye, a region predominantly characterized by an arid-semiarid macro-Mediterranean climate, which is susceptible to frequent droughts. Using daily maximum temperature data from 277 meteorological stations across Türkiye (1970-2022), the research analyzes HW frequency, duration, and intensity, adopting a definition aligned with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Temporal trends were assessed using statistical trend analysis, while spatial patterns were evaluated through spatial autocorrelation methods. The findings indicate a statistically significant increase in the frequency of heatwaves over time, with the annual average number of events rising from approximately 5 in the 1970s to over 10 since the 2000s. This trend is particularly evident in the Marmara, Aegean, and Black Sea regions. Trend analysis results reveal that heatwave duration has exhibited a statistically significant increase throughout the study period in 96.4% of the analyzed stations. The most pronounced increases have been observed in the Marmara, Black Sea, and Eastern Mediterranean regions. These results underscore the growing impact of climate change on Türkiye and highlight the need for targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies. Insights from this study can inform the development of early warning systems, resource allocation, and public health preparedness, ultimately enhancing community and ecosystem resilience to climate-related challenges.