Time preferences and COVID-19 vaccination uptake

In the evolving COVID-19 endemic phase, the emergence of new variants and viruses may necessitate renewed efforts to control their spread. Understanding how individual preferences and attitudes influence vaccination behavior is crucial in preparation for this. This paper presents results from a multi-country online survey conducted in 22 countries between July 2022 and June 2023. The survey elicited individuals’ time preferences (discount rate and present bias) implementing choice list methodology and explored respondents’ behaviors and attitudes for vaccination using respectively revealed and stated preferences data through a Discrete Choice Experiment. Respondents were classified as vaccine accepters (one or more COVID-19 doses at the time of the data collection), hesitant (willing to get the vaccine if given conditions are met) and refuser (no intention to get the vaccine). Overall, we found no evidence of a present bias, but substantial variation in discount rate between respondents across different countries. Minimal differences between revealed and stated preferences data were found. Hesitant respondents revealed larger discount rates compared to the vaccinated respondents, indicating a stronger preference for immediate outcomes. On the contrary, refusers showed lower discount rates, indicating stronger preferences for future outcomes. The high discount rate of the hesitant group may result in a low weight given to the consequences of a future COVID-19 infection. Hence, policymakers could specifically target hesitant people to make the long-term advantages of COVID-19 vaccinations, in terms of reduced infection probability and lower disease severity in case of infection, more salient, or to focus more on the short-term benefits of vaccination, for instance by stressing the improved access it may bring to social events and the reduced chances of getting sick.