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Establishment of Myopia Occurrence Prediction Model in Children without Myopia Using Cycloplegic Refraction and Prior
Shengsong Xu1, Zhenbang Ruan1, Yanbin Wang1
1State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Ophthalmology
|June 14, 2025
Summary
This study developed a myopia prediction model using baseline refraction and axial length changes in children. The model accurately predicts myopia onset and helps define pre-myopia criteria for early intervention.
Area of Science:
- Ophthalmology
- Pediatric Ophthalmology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Myopia onset prediction is crucial for identifying pre-myopia.
- Early identification allows for timely intervention to prevent high myopia.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a myopia occurrence prediction model.
- To investigate potential pre-myopia criteria using established models.
Main Methods:
- A 5-year prospective study involving 4,437 children aged 6-9 years.
- Collected data included cycloplegic spherical equivalent refraction (SER) and axial length (AL) measurements.
- Developed a prediction model incorporating baseline SER, 1-year AL change, sex, and parental myopia history.
Main Results:
- Baseline SER and prior AL change demonstrated strong predictive value for myopia onset.
- The final model showed excellent calibration and discrimination (AUCs 0.877-0.941) for 1- to 4-year predictions.
- Established SER thresholds for defining pre-myopia risk, integrated into an online risk calculator.
Conclusions:
- A validated myopia prediction model was developed using cycloplegic refraction and axial length changes.
- Potential SER thresholds for pre-myopia definition were established.
- Further validation in diverse populations is recommended.
