The Preference-Expectation Gap in Support for Female Candidates: Evidence from Japan

Gender disparities in Japanese government are consistently high, but evidence of voter bias against female politicians is mixed. We argue that this discrepancy arises because some researchers measure Japanese voters' first-order preferences (who they personally support) while other researchers measure Japanese voters' second-order preferences (who they expect other voters to support). We call this gap between voters' own preferences and expectations regarding others' preferences the preference-expectation gap. Since this gap is a key mechanism of strategic discrimination, we test our argument using an experimental design modelled after research on strategic discrimination in the 2020 US Democratic primary elections. Based on two online conjoint survey experiments in Japan, our findings demonstrate the presence of a preference-expectation gap in Japanese public opinion on female politicians. Exploratory analyses of moderation effects reveal that female participants and those with more liberal views toward gender roles have larger preference-expectation gaps.