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Estimating Leopard population sizes in western Mozambique using SNP-based capture-mark-recapture models.

Ryan E Forbes1,2, Graham I H Kerley1, Kristoffer T Everatt1,3,4

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Genetic capture-mark-recapture models provided crucial population size estimates for vulnerable African leopards (Panthera pardus) in Mozambique. These findings highlight the need for genetic monitoring to inform conservation efforts for this elusive large carnivore.

Keywords:
Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation AreaPanthera pardusgenotypingnoninvasivescattrophic scaling

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Area of Science:

  • Conservation Biology
  • Wildlife Ecology
  • Genetics

Background:

  • Estimating population sizes for rare, cryptic species like large carnivores is essential for conservation but challenging.
  • African leopards (Panthera pardus) are listed as vulnerable, facing population declines across their range.
  • Accurate population data is scarce for many leopard populations, hindering effective management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate population sizes of African leopards in Limpopo National Park (LNP), Banhine National Park (BNP), and Lebombo Conservancy (LC) in Mozambique.
  • To compare genetic capture-mark-recapture (CMR) estimates with trophic scaling to understand leopard density drivers.
  • To advocate for the use of genetic CMR models in leopard population monitoring for conservation.

Main Methods:

  • Noninvasive genetic sampling of leopards using scat collection.
  • Application of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models.
  • Comparison of genetic density estimates with trophic scaling analyses.

Main Results:

  • Estimated leopard populations: 87 in LNP, 15 in BNP, and 13 in LC.
  • Trophic scaling suggests bottom-up prey limitation in LNP and LC, and top-down regulation in BNP.
  • Genetic CMR models provided robust, noninvasive population estimates.

Conclusions:

  • Genetic CMR models are effective for monitoring vulnerable leopard populations.
  • Prey availability and predation dynamics influence leopard density in different conservation areas.
  • Urgent implementation of genetic monitoring is recommended for informed conservation and management of leopards.