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The state value.

Moustafa Ahmed AbdElaal1, Nesrien Mohamed Elmohamady2

  • 1Department of business administration, Faculty of Business, Alexandria University, Egypt.

Plos One
|June 17, 2025
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Summary

This study introduces a dynamic model for state value assessment using future contract pricing, improving government performance evaluation and decision-making. It overcomes limitations of traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models by incorporating market conditions and risk-neutral approaches.

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Financial Modeling
  • Public Policy Analysis

Background:

  • Traditional methods like discounted cash flow (DCF) struggle to incorporate market conditions and risk-neutral approaches for national wealth valuation.
  • Existing models lack flexibility in accounting for diverse factors influencing state value.
  • Governmental decision-making requires robust valuation tools that consider dynamic market influences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a novel dynamic model for assessing state value using future contract pricing.
  • To enable the incorporation of an unlimited number of factors influencing state value.
  • To provide a framework for evaluating governmental performance and optimizing decision-making timing and value.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizes a future contract pricing approach to determine state value.
  • Categorizes state value determinants into primary and secondary factors.
  • Develops a model to ascertain the optimal marginal return on assets for governmental decisions.

Main Results:

  • The proposed dynamic model allows for the inclusion of numerous state value determinants.
  • It addresses limitations of traditional DCF models, such as pricing intangibles and cash flow uncertainty.
  • The model offers a method to identify optimal governmental decision-making points based on asset marginal returns.

Conclusions:

  • The future contract pricing model offers a more comprehensive approach to state value assessment than traditional DCF.
  • This dynamic model enhances the evaluation of government performance and strategic decision-making.
  • The framework provides a valuable tool for optimizing national wealth management and policy implementation.