Protective influence of heatwave activity on pregnancy duration

This study investigates the impact of heatwave exposure on pregnancy duration, offering new insights into the complex relationship between environmental heat stress and gestational outcomes. Using data from over 3170 singleton pregnancies in Poland (2013-2020), we applied Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the risk of delivery associated with heatwave exposure during various stages of pregnancy. The proportional hazards assumption was tested using Schoenfeld residuals and found to be violated for key covariates, prompting the use of time-varying and stratified modeling to ensure robustness. Our findings challenge the prevailing view that heatwaves are uniformly harmful during pregnancy. We observed a consistent association between heatwave exposure and prolonged gestational duration, along with a reduced risk of preterm birth, even during late gestation. These protective effects were particularly evident among pregnancies complicated by maternal conditions such as hypothyroidism, diabetes, and advanced maternal age. Sensitivity analyses supported the stability of these associations, and model diagnostics confirmed the validity of the adjusted models. These results support emerging evidence that moderate environmental stressors may activate compensatory physiological responses, promoting fetal development and delaying delivery. In the context of climate change, understanding both the risks and adaptive potential of heat exposure is essential for guiding obstetric care and public health strategies.