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Priorities for modelling arbovirus transmission under climate change
Ilaria Dorigatti1, Katy A M Gaythorpe1, Victoria M Cox1
1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Trends in Molecular Medicine
|June 17, 2025
Summary
Climate change significantly impacts arbovirus transmission by affecting vectors and hosts. Developing climate-driven models is crucial for managing public health risks from these diseases.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Epidemiology
- Public health
Background:
- Arboviruses rely on ectothermic vectors and multiple hosts, making their transmission sensitive to environmental conditions.
- Climate change poses a significant threat to the ecology and risk of arbovirus transmission.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review how climate change influences arbovirus transmission ecology and associated risks.
- To highlight the urgent need for predictive tools to manage arbovirus risk under changing climate conditions.
Main Methods:
- Literature review on arbovirus transmission and climate change impacts.
- Discussion of the challenges in predicting climate change effects on disease systems.
Main Results:
- Climate change is expected to alter the transmission dynamics of arboviruses.
- Existing predictive models may not fully capture the complexity of these changes.
Conclusions:
- Developing climate-driven mechanistic models, informed by surveillance data, is imperative for effective arbovirus risk management.
- Evidence-based policy is needed to address the global public health challenge posed by climate-sensitive arboviruses.
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