Priorities for modelling arbovirus transmission under climate change

The transmission potential of arboviruses is extremely sensitive to environmental conditions. This sensitivity is due to both their intimate relationship with ectothermic vectors and, in many cases, also to the involvement of multiple host species in zoonotic transmission cycles. Here, we review how climate change will alter the transmission ecology and risk of these important infections. The challenge of predicting how climate change will impact these systems is daunting, but the need for tools to manage arbovirus risk under climate change is urgent and imperative. We argue that the development of climate-driven mechanistic models of disease transmission informed by empirical surveillance data is urgently needed to inform future responses and for generating the evidence that policy needs to tackle this global public health risk.