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Comparing Canada's OncoSim-Breast model with the United States' Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network
Oguzhan Alagoz1, Claude Nadeau2, Jean Hai Ein Yong3
1Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Health Reports
|June 18, 2025
Summary
Comparing breast cancer models, starting mammography screening at age 40 for women averts more deaths and gains more life years than starting at age 50. OncoSim-Breast aligns with US CISNET models.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Public Health
- Health Economics
Background:
- The OncoSim-Breast model simulates breast cancer events in Canada.
- This study compares OncoSim-Breast with US Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models.
- The comparison focuses on extending mammography screening to women aged 40-49.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the OncoSim-Breast model's projections with CISNET models.
- To evaluate the impact of initiating breast cancer screening at age 40 versus age 50.
Main Methods:
- Used Canadian and US demographic data, competing mortality, and test performance.
- Analyzed 10 digital mammography screening scenarios with perfect adherence.
- Calculated lifetime outcomes for a cohort of 40-year-old women born in 1980.
Main Results:
- OncoSim-Breast projected 1.7 breast cancer deaths averted and 53 life years gained per 1,000 women by starting screening at age 40 (vs. 50).
- CISNET models projected a median of 1.3 deaths averted (range 0.8-3.2) and 43 life years gained (range 31-103).
- Secondary outcomes showed consistency between OncoSim-Breast and CISNET models.
Conclusions:
- OncoSim-Breast's estimates for earlier breast cancer screening align with CISNET model results.
- The findings support the impact of extending mammography screening to younger women.
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