Ecological Niche Changes and Risk Regionalization of the Invasive Plant Praxelis clematidea

Area of Science:

• Invasive Species Ecology
• Ecological Niche Modeling
• Biogeography

Background:

• Praxelis clematidea is a noxious invasive weed with significant ecological and economic impacts.
• Understanding its dispersion trends and niche dynamics is crucial for effective management and control strategies.
• Guizhou Province is identified as a key region for monitoring and managing P. clematidea invasions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To classify invasion risk zones of Praxelis clematidea in Guizhou Province.
• To predict the future dispersion trends of P. clematidea.
• To quantify ecological niche changes and assess invasion potential.

Main Methods:

• Species distribution modeling using MaxEnt, Zonation, and ArcGIS.
• Ecological niche analysis conducted with the R software ecospat package.
• Prediction of dispersion trends and quantification of niche overlap and stability.

Main Results:

• Current high-risk invasion areas for P. clematidea in Guizhou cover 14,096.03 km², concentrated in western and southern regions.
• Future predictions indicate expansion towards southeastern parts by the 2050s, followed by a decrease, and large-scale expansion in central and northeastern parts by the 2070s-2090s.
• Low ecological niche overlap (Schoener's D=0.12) and high niche expansion rate (0.88) indicate niche instability and adaptive potential.

Conclusions:

• The study successfully mapped current and predicted future invasion risk zones for P. clematidea in Guizhou.
• Praxelis clematidea exhibits niche instability and a tendency to expand, adapting to local conditions like high precipitation and low temperatures.
• Findings provide a scientific basis for early warning systems and targeted prevention and control measures against this invasive weed.