Effect evaluation of regional carbon emission reduction of the municipal solid waste incineration

In order to evaluate the impact of domestic waste incineration power generation on regional carbon emission reduction, this paper takes Ganzhou City as an example. Based on the analysis of the operation data of 9 incineration facilities under construction in Ganzhou City from 2018 to 2024, through methods such as CCER accounting, GM(1,1) prediction, and the AERMOD atmospheric diffusion model, the amount of carbon emission reduction from 2018 to 2024 is quantified (counted in CO₂-eq, the same below), and the impact is further predicted until 2035. The main achievements and understandings are as follows: (1) The components of domestic waste are mainly waste paper, plastics, and kitchen waste, accounting for about 70 % of the total content, with an average calorific value of 5085.4 kJ/kg. (2) From 2018 to 2024, the cumulative carbon emission reduction is 9.4689 million tons, with an average of 1.3527 million tons per year, and the contribution of replacing coal-fired power generation accounts for 76 %. (3) The predicted amount of carbon emission reduction from 2025 to 2035 reaches 105 million tons, and the model fitting R² = 0.9948. (4) The results of the AERMOD atmospheric simulation show that domestic waste incineration power generation has an obvious effect on regional carbon emission reduction. In regions such as Nankang and Ningdu, the reduction of CO₂ concentration is up to >350 mg/m³. This study provides a multi-method integrated framework and data support for regional waste incineration planning and the implementation of the "dual carbon" policy.