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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Econometrics
  • Computational Economics

Background:

  • Single country computable general equilibrium (CGE) models often assume price-taking behavior in international markets.
  • This assumption can overlook crucial terms of trade effects, particularly in trade-exposed sectors of large economies.
  • Existing models may not fully capture the nuances of global trade linkages for economies with significant market power.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess numerical evidence for modeling large open economies within CGE frameworks.
  • To develop and validate a methodology for approximating international trade linkages using a reduced-form approach.
  • To evaluate the significance of the large open economy assumption in non-trade policy analyses.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a methodology to parameterize a reduced-form approximation of international trade linkages.
  • Utilized a multi-regional global economy model to derive simulated export demand and import supply elasticities.
  • Compared the reduced-form approach against a multi-regional static model with explicit trade linkages.
  • Extended the calibration procedure to a dynamic model, using the U.S. EPA's SAGE model as an illustration.

Main Results:

  • Simulated elasticities indicate that the small open economy assumption (price-taking) can obscure important impacts in export and some import markets.
  • The proposed reduced-form approach for capturing terms of trade effects performs comparably to a multi-regional static model.
  • The large open economy assumption demonstrates significant relevance in non-trade policy applications.

Conclusions:

  • The study highlights the limitations of the price-taking assumption in single-country CGE models for large economies.
  • A reduced-form approximation effectively captures terms of trade effects, offering a viable alternative for modeling large open economies.
  • Accurate modeling of large open economies is crucial for non-trade policy assessments, underscoring the importance of incorporating market power dynamics.