Rapid Risk Assessment Framework to Estimate Potential for Spillback at Human-Wildlife Interfaces

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Epidemiology
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Emerging infectious diseases often originate in wildlife, posing risks of spillback to human populations.
• Spillback events, where diseases spread from humans back to wildlife, can cause severe wildlife morbidity/mortality and prolonged human exposure.
• Identifying risk factors for rare human-wildlife transmission is crucial for mitigation but challenging due to data limitations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a spatially explicit, rapid risk assessment framework to identify species and locations vulnerable to zoonotic disease spillback.
• To assess the spillback risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and mpox to wild mammals in the continental United States.

Main Methods:

• Developed a framework incorporating wildlife susceptibility, wildlife exposure, and pathogen introduction pressure.
• Applied the framework to assess spillback risks for SARS-CoV-2 and mpox in the continental US wild mammalian species.
• Utilized a spatially explicit approach for rapid risk assessment.

Main Results:

• Identified specific wild mammalian species and geographic locations within the continental US exhibiting higher-than-expected spillback risk for SARS-CoV-2 and mpox.
• The framework successfully pinpointed areas and species requiring prioritized surveillance and mitigation efforts.
• Demonstrated the framework's applicability to emerging zoonotic pathogens.

Conclusions:

• The developed rapid risk assessment framework is effective for identifying spillback risks during zoonotic disease outbreaks.
• Provides crucial data for wildlife and public health managers to prioritize surveillance and risk-mitigation actions.
• Offers a flexible approach to assess spillback risks in wildlife populations facing evolving zoonotic threats.