Development of a Radiomic-clinical Nomogram for Prediction of Survival in Patients with Nasal Extranodal Natural
Limin Chen1, Zhao Wang1, Xiaojie Fang1
1Department of Medical Oncology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Guangzhou 510060, Guangdong, China.
Introduction:
An accurate and reliable prognostic model for Nasal Extranodal Natural Killer/T-cell Lymphoma (ENKTL) is critical for survival outcomes and personalized therapy. Currently, there is no Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)- based radiomics analysis in the prognosis model for nasal ENKTL patients.
Objective:
We aim to explore the value of MRI-based radiomics signature in the prognosis of patients with nasal ENKTL.
Methods:
A total of 159 nasal ENKTL patients were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n=81) and a validation cohort (n=78) randomly. Radiomics features from pretreatment MRI examination were extracted, respectively. Then two-sample t-test and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression were used to select the radiomics signatures and establish the Rad-score. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to investigate the prognostic value of baseline clinical features and establish clinical models. A radiomics nomogram based on the Rad-score and clinical features was constructed to predict Overall Survival (OS). The predictive efficacy of the three models was evaluated in two cohorts.
Results:
A total of 1,345 features were extracted from T2-weighted (T2-w) and Contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (CET1-w) images, respectively, and 1,037 features with Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) >0.7 were selected. Ultimately, 20 features were chosen to construct the Rad-score, which showed a significant association with OS. The C-indexes of the Rad-score were 0.733 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.645 to 0.816) and 0.824 (95% CI: 0.766-0.882), respectively, in training and validation cohorts. Through the univariate and multivariate analyses, three independent risk factors for OS were identified: Rad-score (HR: 10.962, 95% CI: 3.417-35.167, P <0.001), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level (HR: 3.009, 95% CI: 1.128-8.510, P = 0.028) and distant lymph-node involvement (HR: 2.966, 95% CI: 1.015-8.664, P = 0.047). Patients with distal lymph node involvement and LDH level before treatment were included in the clinical model, which achieved a C-index of 0.707 (95% CI: 0.600–0.814) in the training cohort and 0.635 (95% CI: 0.527–0.743) in the validation cohort. We integrated the Rad-score and clinical variables to establish a radiomics nomogram, which exhibited a satisfactory prediction performance with the C-indexes of 0.849(95% CI: 0.781-0.917) and 0.931 (95% CI: 0.882-0.980) in two cohorts, respectively. The radiomics nomogram was more accurate in predicting OS in patients with nasal ENKTL than the other two models. Based on the radiomics nomogram, patients were categorized into low-risk and high-risk groups in two cohorts (P all < 0.05). The high-risk group defined by this nomogram exhibited a shorter OS.
Conclusion:
The Rad-score was significantly correlated with OS for nasal ENKTL patients. Moreover, the MRI-based radiomics nomogram could be used for risk stratification and might guide individual treatment decisions.
