Extreme Drought Events (1585-1590) and Spatiotemporal Patterns of Infectious Diseases Outbreaks in Ming Dynasty China

Droughts, historically recognized as drivers of societal transformation, have been implicated in the emergence of infectious diseases. While existing research has concentrated on the impact of climate change on infectious diseases outbreaks in modern, industrialized, and urban settings, there is a dearth of epidemiological evidence regarding the historical interplay between drought and disease. Here, we analyze the 1585-1590 extreme drought in Ming Dynasty China to investigate the concurrent development of drought and infectious diseases, as well as the temporal and spatial effects of drought on disease outbreaks. The findings reveal a positive correlation between drought and infectious diseases in both temporal and spatial dimensions, with famine identified as a critical intermediate factor. Drought's influence on famine and disease is both immediate and delayed, with the most significant effects occurring within the same year. Additionally, a north-to-south pattern in the occurrence of drought and infectious diseases is observed, with northern droughts more likely to precipitate disease outbreaks. These insights offer valuable perspectives for future strategies.