Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups...

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Health
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Existing research on child morbidity in Kazakhstan often overlooks non-communicable diseases, focusing instead on mortality and infectious conditions.
• This study addresses the gap by investigating socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare determinants of respiratory diseases, asthma, and nervous system disorders in children aged 0-14 years.
• The research emphasizes the importance of regional context in understanding pediatric non-communicable disease patterns in Kazakhstan.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the associations between socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare factors and the incidence of respiratory diseases, asthma, and nervous system disorders in children (0-14 years) in Kazakhstan.
• To identify region-specific patterns and predictors of pediatric non-communicable diseases.
• To provide evidence for localized policy interventions to address child morbidity.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of panel data from 14 regions of Kazakhstan spanning 2010-2019.
• Application of linear mixed models with autoregressive covariance to account for regional and temporal heterogeneity.
• Modeling of log-transformed incidence rates for respiratory diseases (J00-J99), asthma (J45), and nervous system diseases (G00-G99) against predictors including GRP per capita, unemployment, population density, Gini coefficient, pediatrician density, and hospital resources, while managing multicollinearity.

Main Results:

• Respiratory diseases exhibited the highest mean incidence, with significant regional variations; Pavlodar and North Kazakhstan showed substantially higher rates compared to Zhambyl.
• Increased population density correlated with decreased respiratory disease incidence, while unemployment was associated with a rise. Asthma incidence surged by 140% over the decade, linked to income inequality.
• Unemployment was the sole significant predictor for nervous system disorders. While most diseases declined, neoplasms, diabetes, and asthma showed significant increases.

Conclusions:

• Pediatric respiratory diseases and asthma in Kazakhstan are significantly associated with regional economic conditions, healthcare access, and socioeconomic inequality.
• Population density and income inequality emerged as consistent predictors for these conditions, underscoring their public health relevance.
• The study highlights distinct regional patterns in pediatric morbidity, emphasizing the need for tailored, localized socioeconomic and healthcare strategies to mitigate disease burden.