Epidemiology of Early Onset Prostate Cancer: Global Patterns, Risk Factors, and Projections Through 2040

Screening recommendations for early onset prostate cancer (EOPC) vary significantly across countries and regions, with differences in the recommended starting age and screening frequency. Given these variations, a comprehensive global analysis of EOPC epidemiology and disease burden is essential to inform evidence-based, region-specific screening and intervention strategies.

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (1990-2021), we analyzed EOPC incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across 204 countries, stratified by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) levels. Age-standardized rates and trends were assessed through estimated annual percentage change values. Risk factors, including smoking, milk intake, and calcium intake, were evaluated. Frontier analysis identified regions needing urgent intervention, while Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling projected EOPC trends through 2040.

In 2021, there were 58,694 new EOPC cases and 7927 related deaths globally. The highest burden was observed in high-SDI regions. Incidence, mortality, and DALYs increased across most SDI regions, except for a decline in mortality in high-SDI areas. Age-specific analysis showed rising EOPC burden across all age groups from 1990 to 2021, with the sharpest increases in the 45-49 and 50-54 years age groups. Risk factor analysis attributed 1% of DALYs to smoking, while low milk and calcium intake were protective (-10.2 and -2.8%, respectively). Projections indicate a continued rise in global EOPC burden through 2040.

This study provides critical insights into the global burden of EOPC, emphasizing the need for region-specific screening and prevention strategies to mitigate its impact.