Artificial Intelligence Algorithm Predicts Response to Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Cancer treatment has been revolutionized by immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). However, a subset of patients do not respond and/or they experience significant adverse events. Attempts to integrate reliable biomarkers of ICI response as part of standard care have been hampered by limited generalizability. We previously reported our supervised machine learning (ML) model in a retrospective cohort of metastatic melanoma.

In this study, we expanded our testing to include larger cohorts of patients with melanoma accrued at several sites, including patients enrolled in clinical trials in both adjuvant and metastatic settings. We examined pretreatment hematoxylin and eosin slides from 639 patients with stage III/IV melanoma treated with ICIs [anti-cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (n = 212), anti-programmed death 1 (n = 271), or the combination (n = 156)]. We tested the generalizability of our supervised ML algorithm to predict response to ICIs in the metastatic melanoma cohort and then developed a self-supervised ML model to identify the histologic morphologies associated with patients' survival following ICI use in adjuvant and metastatic melanoma cohorts.

We predicted the response to ICI treatment with an AUC of 0.72. The deep convolutional neural network classified patients into high and low risk based on their likelihood of progression-free survival (P < 0.0001). We uncovered a novel association of specific histomorphologic tumor features-epithelioid histology and a low tumor-stroma ratio-with survival following ICI treatment.

Our data support the generalizability of our developed ML algorithm in predicting response to ICI treatment in patients with metastatic unresectable melanoma. We also showed, for the first time, tumor features associated with patients' overall survival.