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Updated: May 6, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Mathematical modelling and optimal control of malaria transmission with antimalarial drug and insecticide resistance
1Department of Physics, Mathematics and Informatics, Dar es Salaam University College of Education, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Abstract:
This study presents a mathematical model to explore malaria transmission dynamics in the presence of antimalarial drug-resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes. The analytical findings demonstrate a stable disease-free equilibrium when the effective reproduction number is below one. For single-strain malaria infections, the endemic equilibrium may exhibit one, two or no solutions. The model is extended to incorporate three time-dependent controls: long-lasting insecticidal nets, antimalarial treatment and mosquito adulticides. Simulation results indicate that interventions excluding drug-resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes are ineffective. The most effective strategies combine insecticides targeting all vectors with treatments for all malaria cases, regardless of resistance. Efficiency analysis suggests implementing all three controls at efficacy for the maximum impact, while assessments of cost-effectiveness highlight the combination of long-lasting insecticidal nets and antimalarial treatment as a practical option in resource-constrained settings. Nonetheless, integrating all three measures is recommended for substantial malaria transmission reduction.
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