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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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The Bayesian Network Model Revealed the Hospital Decision-making Rationale for Flood Evacuation Planning.

Takashi Nagata1, Takeru Abe2, Koji Nishiyama3

  • 1Department of Emergency Medicine, https://ror.org/05jr18655Japan Self Defense Forces Central Hospital, Setagaya, Tokyo, Japan.

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
|June 25, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Government-provided flood and landslide maps significantly improve hospital preparedness for heavy rain events. Recent flood experiences do not automatically lead to evacuation planning, highlighting the need for better information dissemination.

Keywords:
Bayesian networkfloodhospital evacuationlandslide evacuation plan

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Area of Science:

  • Disaster Management
  • Public Health Preparedness
  • Environmental Health

Background:

  • Increasing frequency of heavy rainfall and flooding necessitates robust hospital preparedness.
  • Securing patient safety during flood events requires effective evacuation planning and drills.
  • Understanding factors influencing hospital preparedness is crucial for mitigating flood impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the relationship between various factors and hospital preparedness for heavy rain-induced flooding.
  • To identify key drivers for developing and implementing hospital evacuation plans and drills.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from a 2022 internet survey of 765 disaster base hospitals in Japan.
  • Employed Bayesian network analysis to examine interrelationships between influencing factors.
  • Analyzed data from 430 hospitals that met inclusion criteria.

Main Results:

  • 42.1% of hospitals were in designated flood zones, yet only 33.7% had evacuation plans.
  • Availability of government-displayed flood-prone and landslide warning areas correlated with evacuation planning and drills.
  • Hospitals' recent flood or landslide experience did not directly correlate with evacuation planning or drills.

Conclusions:

  • Government provision of flood and landslide warning information is effective in enhancing hospital flood preparedness.
  • Proactive measures, such as clear mapping of hazard zones, are vital for improving hospital response.
  • Findings offer insights for enhancing hospital preparedness strategies against heavy rain and flooding.