Papageno Stories Predict Lower Suicide Rates - Analysis of American Feature Films, 1950-2002

Background: A majority of research concerning media impacts on suicide has focused on the harmful impacts. In contrast, the present study focuses on positive media impacts, the Papageno effect. The central hypothesis is that the higher the exposure of the public to films portraying a story of a suicidal person who ultimately recovers, the lower the suicide rate. Methodology: Data on suicides per 100,000 were from the US Public Health Service. Seven online film bibliographies were searched to include American films that (1) contained a person initially attempting suicide and then conquering their problems and (2) were in the top 50 at the box office. The number of such portrayals per year comprised the chief independent variable, while adjustments were made for three core theoretical constructs. Results: Sixty-one narratives met the inclusion criteria. An AR-1 Cochrane-Orcutt multivariate analysis showed that controlling for the other predictors, each additional exposure to a Papageno story significantly decreased the suicide rate (b = -.059, SE = .023, t = -2.51, p = .015). The full model explained 89% of the variance. Limitations: Only half a century was assessed. Conclusion: This is the first analysis linking the yearly frequency of Papageno narratives to a lower national suicide rate.