Assessing the Transmissibility and Outbreak Risk of Measles in the United States, 2024-2030

The incidence of measles has resurged globally after the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. To inform planning in the United States, we assessed local transmissibility and outbreak risk at present (2024-2025) and in future years (2025-2030) under various vaccination scenarios. The estimated spatiotemporal outbreak risk pattern is consistent with current observations. Projections through 2030 show that the reproduction number could exceed 1-indicating a potential of large outbreaks-within 5 (or 2) years should vaccination coverage decline by 10% (or 50%). These findings can inform outbreak preparedness and highlight the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to sustaining measles elimination in the United States.