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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Sep 18, 2025

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
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Multiple sclerosis mortality trends in Spain from 1981 to 2020.

L Cayuela1, A de Albóniga-Chindurza2, S Gómez Enjuto3

  • 1Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Severo Ochoa, Leganés, Spain.

Neurologia
|June 25, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Multiple sclerosis (MS) mortality rates are rising in Spain for both men and women. While stable for men initially, MS mortality increased significantly after 2000, with birth cohort patterns showing varying risk over time.

Keywords:
Age-period-cohort analysisAnálisis edad-periodo-cohorteEpidemiologyEpidemiologíaEsclerosis múltipleEspañaMortality trendsMultiple sclerosisSpainTendencias de mortalidad

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Neurology

Background:

  • Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurological disease with significant public health implications.
  • Understanding temporal trends in MS mortality is crucial for resource allocation and public health interventions.
  • Previous studies on MS mortality trends have shown varying patterns across different populations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze time trends in multiple sclerosis (MS) mortality within the Spanish population from 1981 to 2020.
  • To investigate the independent effects of gender, age, period, and birth cohort on MS mortality trends.
  • To provide insights into the changing epidemiology of MS mortality in Spain.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data on MS deaths and population statistics from Spain's National Institute of Statistics.
  • Calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and performed trend analyses using joinpoint regression software.
  • Employed Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis via a US National Cancer Institute web tool to explore underlying mortality drivers.

Main Results:

  • Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for MS demonstrated a significant increase in both women (1.7% annually) and men (1.2% annually).
  • Joinpoint analysis revealed stable MS mortality rates in men from 1981-2000, followed by a significant increase (2.6% annually) from 2000-2020; no trend change was detected for women.
  • APC analysis indicated a steady increase in period effects for both sexes since the 1990s and identified a birth cohort-related increase in mortality, peaking for women born around 1956 and men around 1966.

Conclusions:

  • MS mortality rates have steadily increased in Spain over recent decades, with a more pronounced rise observed in men.
  • The identified birth cohort patterns in MS mortality, showing decreasing risk for more recent cohorts, align with findings from international studies.
  • These trends underscore the need for continued epidemiological surveillance and research into the factors influencing MS mortality.