Spatio-Temporal Projections of the Distribution of the Canopy-Forming Algae Sargassum in the Western North Pacific Under Climate Change Scenarios Using the MAXENT Model
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Future climate change may significantly alter Sargassum seaweed habitats in the North Pacific. While some species may thrive under certain scenarios, others face decline, necessitating adaptive conservation strategies for these vital coastal ecosystems.
Area Of Science
- Marine Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Conservation Science
Background
- Canopy-forming algae, particularly the genus Sargassum, are crucial for coastal ecosystems in the western North Pacific, providing essential habitats and supporting marine biodiversity.
- Despite their ecological significance, comprehensive studies on the shifts in Sargassum distribution due to environmental changes remain limited.
- Understanding future habitat availability is critical for effective conservation planning and management of these foundational species.
Purpose Of The Study
- To predict the future geographic distribution of habitats for four key Sargassum species under various climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSPs) through the 2090s.
- To identify the primary environmental drivers influencing Sargassum habitat suitability.
- To assess the overlap of predicted future habitats with existing marine protected areas.
Main Methods
- Utilized current distribution data for four Sargassum species to model future habitat suitability.
- Employed environmental variables from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under three SSP scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5).
- Applied the MAXENT modeling approach to predict habitat suitability index (HSI) and suitable habitat areas.
Main Results
- Current velocity and water temperature were identified as key environmental variables impacting all four Sargassum species.
- Three species (S. horneri, S. macrocarpum, S. patens) are projected to maintain high habitat suitability under the low-emission SSP1-1.9 scenario.
- Under higher emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), habitat suitability is predicted to decrease in southern Korean waters and increase in the East Sea, with northward shifts of 0.8° N to 3.8° N by the 2090s under SSP5-8.5.
- Sargassum piluliferum is predicted to increase its habitat suitability under the highest emission scenario.
- Suitable Sargassum habitats are projected to overlap with existing marine protected areas by 47.1% to 61.2%, depending on the scenario.
Conclusions
- Climate change, particularly under high emission scenarios, is expected to significantly alter Sargassum distribution patterns in the western North Pacific.
- Conservation strategies must consider these predicted shifts, focusing on adaptive management and potentially expanding protected areas to encompass future suitable habitats.
- The findings underscore the urgent need for global climate change mitigation efforts to preserve critical coastal ecosystems reliant on Sargassum.
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