College-to-NFL Stadium Turf Transitions as a Risk Factor for Lower Extremity Non-Contact Injuries in Rookie Players:...

Background/Objectives: Lower extremity non-contact injuries (LE-NCIs) pose a significant burden on the National Football League (NFL), with ongoing debates regarding playing surface safety. The stressful college-to-professional transition period for rookies, which can include adapting to new playing surfaces, may influence injury susceptibility. This study aimed to determine whether the transition in a home stadium turf type (natural grass, artificial, and hybrid) from the final college season to the rookie NFL season impacts LE-NCI likelihood. Methods: A retrospective cohort study analyzed 826 first and second-round NFL draft picks from 2012 to 2024. Data on college/NFL home surfaces (defining six transition types), position group, college training surface access, and rookie season LE-NCIs were collected from public sources. Competing risk analysis was used to estimate the cumulative LE-NCI incidence. Multivariable logistic regression assessed the association between turf transition and LE-NCI risk, adjusting for position, draft cohort, and college training access. Results: During their rookie season, 21.2% (175/826) of players sustained an LE-NCI. Skill position players had significantly higher adjusted odds of LE-NCI compared to hybrid players (AOR = 1.88; 95% CI: 1.20-2.97; p = 0.006). No specific turf transition category showed a statistically significant association with LE-NCI risk compared to the Grass-to-Grass reference in adjusted models. College training surface access was also not significantly associated with risk (AOR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.65-1.45; p = 0.874). Cumulative LE-NCI incidence reached 33.1% by season end, with risk accelerating between weeks 4 and 10. Conclusions: Home stadium turf-type transition from college to the NFL was not significantly associated with LE-NCI risk in this rookie cohort, suggesting that surface transitions may not be a primary risk factor during the professional transition period. However, our analysis revealed significant position-dependent injury patterns (skill players: AOR = 1.88) and a temporal clustering of injuries between weeks 4 and 10, indicating that rookie LE-NCI prevention strategies should prioritize position-specific interventions and enhanced monitoring during the early- to mid-season high-risk period rather than surface transition-based approaches.