Understanding Cancer Risk Among Bangladeshi Women: An Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Socio-Reproductive...

Breast cancer poses a significant health challenge in Bangladesh, where limited screening and unique reproductive patterns contribute to delayed diagnoses and subtype-specific disparities. While reproductive risk factors such as age at menarche, parity, and contraceptive use are well studied in high-income countries, their associations with hormone-receptor-positive (HR+) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remain underexplored in low-resource settings.

A case-control study was conducted at the National Institute of Cancer Research and Hospital (NICRH) including 486 histopathologically confirmed breast cancer cases (246 HR+, 240 TNBC) and 443 cancer-free controls. Socio-demographic and reproductive data were collected through structured interviews. Machine learning models-including Logistic Regression, Lasso, Support Vector Machines, Random Forest, and XGBoost-were trained using stratified five-fold cross-validation. Model performance was evaluated using sensitivity, F1-score, and Area Under Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC). To interpret model predictions and quantify the contribution of individual features, we employed Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values.

XGBoost achieved the highest overall performance (F1-score = 0.750), and SHAP-based interpretability revealed key predictors for each subtype. Rural residence, low education (≤5 years), and undernutrition were significant predictors across subtypes. Cesarean delivery and multiple abortions were more predictive of TNBC, while urban residence, employment, and higher education were more predictive of HR+. Age at menarche and age at first childbirth showed decreasing predictive importance with increasing age for HR+, while larger gaps between marriage and childbirth were more predictive of TNBC.

Our findings underscore the value of machine learning coupled with SHAP-based explainability in identifying context-specific risk factors for breast cancer subtypes in resource-limited settings. This approach enhances transparency and supports the development of targeted public health interventions to reduce breast cancer disparities in Bangladesh.