Climate and human-driven changes in malaria vector distribution in China: implications for Anopheles species...

Malaria, transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a major global health threat. While China achieved malaria-free certification in 2021, the country remains vulnerable to imported cases, a risk exacerbated by climate change and human activities. Accurate predictions of malaria vector distributions are essential for effective prevention and management.

We employed the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model to assess the current distribution of Anopheles sinensis and Anopheles lesteri in China, incorporating recent occurrence data alongside climatic, soil, human activity, and vegetation variables. The model projected future distribution patterns under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) for the periods 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. An. sinensis is currently widespread in southern, eastern, and central China, primarily influenced by the human footprint and precipitation during the driest month. An. lesteri is more confined to southern and central regions, largely shaped by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and human footprint. Both species are projected to shift northward under future climate scenarios. By 2081-2100, under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, the potential suitability of An. sinensis is expected to decline by 5.59%, while An. lesteri's suitability is projected to increase by 61.32%.

Our findings suggest An. lesteri is more resilient to climate change than An. sinensis, with a greater potential for northern expansion. The complex interplay of environmental factors underscores the need for integrated vector management strategies. Adopting a One Health framework - recognizing the interconnected health of humans, animals, and ecosystems - is essential for maintaining China's malaria-free status and preventing the re-establishment of malaria transmission. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.