Antibody Kinetics of Immunological Memory in SARS-CoV-2-Vaccinated Healthcare Workers-The ORCHESTRA Project

Background/Objectives: This study examines the longitudinal dynamics of anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) and anti-spike (anti-S) antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and mRNA vaccination based on 81,878 serum samples from 23,616 healthcare workers (HCWs) across five European countries. It includes data across four scheduled vaccine doses-predominantly BNT162b2-with 25% of samples originating from individuals with confirmed prior infection, as evidenced by elevated anti-S levels, positive Anti-N antibodies, or PCR results. Methods: The study employed a shifted transformation method for data normalization and utilized the Bass diffusion model to predict antibody titer dynamics influenced by both internal factors-such as immune activation contextualized through sociodemographic issues-and external factors, including infection and vaccination. Despite the absence of direct measurements for some internal variables, the model effectively inferred their impact, enabling a rigorous and nuanced delineation of immune response profiles. Results: The Bass diffusion model rigorously captured variations in antibody titers, analyzed through demographic factors such as gender, age, and job role, while thoroughly accounting for pre-infection status. The results indicate that Anti-N antibodies, exclusively produced post-infection, exhibited a rapid decline, while anti-S antibodies, generated from both infection and vaccination, demonstrated prolonged persistence. A significant decline in anti-S levels was observed 3-5 months post-vaccination, with adaptive immunity-characterized by the dominance of internal factors effects relative to external ones-achieved in most groups after the fourth dose. However, adaptive immunity post second dose was limited to specific demographics. Conclusions: These findings emphasize the significance of the Bass Method in predicting vaccine-induced, hybrid immune responses and detecting adaptive immunity by overcoming limitations in internal factor data, thereby advancing effective vaccination and infection control strategies during public health crises. These findings highlight the Bass Method's value in predicting vaccine-induced and hybrid immunity, effectively addressing internal factor data gaps to enhance vaccination and infection control strategies.