Climate Change Impact on Human-Rodent Interfaces: Modeling Junin Virus Reservoir Shifts.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Disease Ecology

Background:

• The drylands vesper mouse (Calomys musculinus) is the primary reservoir for Junin mammarenavirus (JUNV), the causative agent of Argentine hemorrhagic fever.
• Understanding the ecological niche and distribution of C. musculinus is crucial for predicting and managing JUNV transmission.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the current and future potential distribution of C. musculinus under various climate change scenarios.
• To identify potential hotspots for disease transmission associated with C. musculinus expansion.
• To provide a framework for preventive measures against Argentine hemorrhagic fever.

Main Methods:

• Utilized tree-based machine learning algorithms to model rodent distribution.
• Incorporated bioclimatic and landscape predictors into the distribution model.
• Projected species distribution and disease hotspots under intermediate (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070.

Main Results:

• The model demonstrated strong performance with F-scores between 80.22% and 83.09%.
• Key predictors for C. musculinus distribution include preference for warm temperatures, moderate precipitation, low precipitation variability, and low pasture coverage.
• A severe climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) projected a decrease in suitable areas for the rodent and disease hotspots.
• An intermediate scenario (RCP 4.5) indicated an expansion of C. musculinus distribution and an increase in potential disease hotspot zones.

Conclusions:

• Climate change significantly influences the distribution of C. musculinus, impacting potential Argentine hemorrhagic fever transmission.
• The study highlights the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate disease risk in changing environments.
• Findings support targeted ecological studies and preventive actions in regions vulnerable to rodent expansion and disease outbreaks.