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Updated: Sep 17, 2025
05:04
Author Spotlight: Understanding Riverine Nitrogen Impacts and Primary Productivity for Effective Nutrient Management
Published on: July 14, 2023
486
Climate-induced changes in streamflow and nitrogen loading to Long Island Sound
Melissa S Duvall1, James D Hagy2
1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Long Island Sound Office, 888 Washington Blvd., Stamford, CT 06904, USA.
The Science of the Total Environment
|June 27, 2025
Summary
Climate change will alter streamflow and nutrient loading, impacting estuarine water quality. Projected shifts may lead to improved conditions in some areas but worsen eutrophication and hypoxia in others, requiring adaptive management.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Water Resource Management
Background:
- Climate-induced changes in streamflow and nutrient loading significantly affect estuarine water quality.
- Estuaries like Long Island Sound (LIS) are vulnerable to alterations in water quality due to changing hydrological patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an empirical approach for estimating climate-driven changes in streamflow magnitude, timing, and duration.
- To project future streamflow and nutrient loading into Long Island Sound under climate change scenarios.
- To assess the potential impacts of these changes on estuarine water quality, including eutrophication and hypoxia.
Main Methods:
- Utilized statistically downscaled projections from global climate models.
- Employed generalized additive models (GAMs) with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to estimate streamflow.
- Analyzed changes in streamflow and total nitrogen (TN) loading for the Connecticut River basin and other near-coastal basins impacting LIS.
Main Results:
- Projected streamflow increases in February-May and July-September, with decreases in October-January.
- Annual streamflow decreased in the Connecticut River basin (-12.6%), leading to an estimated 10% decrease in TN loading.
- Future TN riverine loads to LIS are projected to be lower overall, but with regional variations, potentially causing oligotrophication in eastern LIS and eutrophication in western LIS.
Conclusions:
- Climate change will alter hydrological regimes and nutrient inputs to estuaries, necessitating adaptive water quality management.
- The choice of climate model predictors (e.g., evapotranspiration vs. temperature) significantly influences streamflow projections.
- Projected changes in nutrient loading pose risks of localized eutrophication and hypoxia in western LIS, requiring targeted mitigation strategies.
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