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Land use/cover changes lead to a decrease in carbon storage in arid regions-a case study of Northwest China.
1Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China; Post-doctorate Workstation, Sanhe Digital Surveying and Geographic Information Technology Company, Tianshui 741000, China.
The Science of the Total Environment
|June 28, 2025
Summary
This study developed the Arid_InVEST model to assess carbon storage in arid regions, finding soil inorganic carbon is crucial. Land-use changes are projected to decrease carbon storage by 2100.
Area of Science:
- Ecosystem Carbon Cycling
- Climate Change Mitigation
- Arid Land Management
Background:
- Terrestrial ecosystems are vital for climate mitigation through carbon pool preservation.
- Accurate carbon storage assessment is key to understanding the global carbon cycle.
- Soil inorganic carbon (SIC) represents a significant, often overlooked, carbon pool in arid regions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply the Arid_InVEST model, integrating soil inorganic carbon (SIC) into ecosystem carbon pool assessments.
- To analyze the influence of land cover change on carbon storage dynamics in arid environments over 30 years and project future trends.
- To provide a novel framework for understanding and managing carbon storage in arid regions under climate change scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Modification of the InVEST carbon module to create the Arid_InVEST model, incorporating soil inorganic carbon (SIC) pools.
- Assessment of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage over the past 30 years using the Arid_InVEST model.
- Projection of future carbon storage trends for the next 80 years under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios.
Main Results:
- Cropland expanded by 23.5% over the past 30 years, while barren land significantly decreased.
- Soil inorganic carbon (SIC) constitutes 46.10% of total carbon storage in arid lands, with highest densities in forests, grasslands, and croplands.
- Projected land use and land cover change (LUCC) under SSP scenarios indicate a decrease in overall carbon storage, driven by grassland degradation and urban expansion, potentially reducing it by 24.1% by 2100 under SSP585.
Conclusions:
- The Arid_InVEST model offers a comprehensive approach to assessing carbon storage dynamics in arid regions by including SIC.
- Land use and land cover change significantly impacts carbon storage in arid ecosystems, necessitating targeted climate policies.
- This study provides crucial insights for developing effective climate mitigation strategies and achieving dual carbon goals in arid environments.
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