[Habitat Quality Evaluation and Simulation Prediction in Hefei City Based on InVEST-PLUS Coupled Modeling]

Analyzing the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use and habitat quality is important for the sustainable development of urban ecology. Based on the land use data of Hefei City in 2012， 2017， and 2022， the PLUS model was used to conduct an expansion factor-driven study and land use simulation prediction in 2032， combined with the InVEST model to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Hefei City. The results show that： ① Land use types in Hefei City mainly included cropland， construction land， forest land， water bodies， grassland， and unused land， with cropland covering the most area. The area of construction land increased， and the area of the rest of the land use types decreased from 2012 to 2022； the predicted trend of land use changes in 2032 was projected to be basically the same as that from 2012 to 2022， all of which were the shift from cropland to construction land. ② Elevation was the main factor affecting the expansion of cropland， forest land， and water bodies； the expansion of construction land was mainly influenced by socio-economic factors； and the expansion of grassland and unused land was most affected by slope. ③ Habitat quality continued to decline from 2012 to 2022， and the overall level was low， with high， higher， medium， and lower habitat quality areas all decreasing and low habitat quality areas increasing， and it was predicted that habitat quality will still be on a declining trend in 2032. ④ The conversion of cropland to water bodies and forest land was the main reason for positive improvement of habitat quality from 2012-2022， and the conversion of cropland to construction land was the main reason for deterioration of habitat quality. It was predicted that the conversion of cropland and forest land to construction land in 2032 will have further negative impacts on the quality of the habitats. The results of the study can provide scientific decision-making basis for ecological environmental protection and urban development and construction in Hefei.