[Exploring the Impact of Future Multi-scenario Land Use Change on Henan Province Regional Carbon Storage]

Land use/cover change （LUCC） is an important factor affecting regional carbon storage. It is of great significance to study the relationship between LUCC and carbon storage for optimizing land management and improving ecological environment. The land use status of Henan Province has changed significantly in recent years. Based on land cover data and combined with InVEST and PLUS model， this study analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of LUCC in Henan Province from 2005 to 2020， as well as the development trend of LUCC and carbon storage under the natural development scenario （Q1）， ecological protection scenario （Q2）， and urban development scenario （Q3）. The results show that： ① The total carbon storage of Henan Province decreased 87.47×10⁶ t from 2005 to 2020， and the carbon storage of different land use types was as follows： cropland > forest > grassland > urban area > water area > unused land， which was consistent with the size of land types. ② In the future three scenarios， the area of six land use types in Henan Province was as follows： cropland > forest > urban area > water area > grassland > unused land. The construction land area increased obviously in Q1 and Q3 compared with that in Q2， the grassland increased obviously in Q2 compared with that in Q1 and Q3， and the increase mainly occurred in the central and northern parts of Henan Province. ③ The carbon storage under three scenarios in Henan Province showed a trend of "Q1 decreasing- Q2 increasing- Q3 decreasing" in 2035， indicating that the regional carbon storage will decrease by 12.80×10⁶ t compared with that in 2020 under the condition of good ecological environment. Furthermore， the larger carbon storage was distributed in the western， northern， and southern provincial boundaries of Henan Province. There was a good consistency between LUCC and carbon storage change in Henan Province. Therefore， optimizing the spatial distribution of land use and formulating reasonable policies to protect grassland and forest will help to improve regional carbon reserves. This study can provide scientific reference for Henan Province to further implement sustainable development and achieve the goal of "double carbon".