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Published on: January 28, 2019
[Risk factors and development of a predictive model for myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced
Li-Ping Feng1, Xiao-Gang Wang1, Wen-Si Niu1
1Department of Pediatrics, Suzhou Wujiang District Children's Hospital/Wujiang Branch, Children's Hospital, Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu 215200, China.
Insights
This study found that 26.1% of children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea experienced myocardial injury. A predictive model identified age, dehydration, acidosis, and blood markers as key risk factors.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Cardiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Biomarkers
Context:
- Rotavirus infection is a common cause of diarrhea in children.
- Myocardial injury can be a serious complication of rotavirus infection.
- Early identification of at-risk children is crucial for timely intervention.
Purpose:
- To determine the incidence of myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea.
- To identify risk factors associated with myocardial injury.
- To develop and validate a predictive model for myocardial injury.
Summary:
- A retrospective analysis of 203 children with rotavirus infection revealed a 26.1% incidence of myocardial injury.
- Key risk factors identified include age, severe dehydration, metabolic acidosis, elevated red cell distribution width, and blood sodium levels.
- A predictive nomogram model demonstrated good performance with an AUC of 0.841, sensitivity of 73.6%, and specificity of 85.3%.
Impact:
- The developed model can aid clinicians in predicting the risk of myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea.
- This facilitates earlier diagnosis and management, potentially improving patient outcomes.
- The findings contribute to a better understanding of rotavirus-associated cardiac complications.
Objectives:
To investigate the incidence of myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea, analyze its risk factors, and develop a predictive model for myocardial injury.
Methods:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on 203 children diagnosed with rotavirus infection at the Suzhou Wujiang District Children's Hospital from January 2021 to December 2023. The children were divided into groups based on the presence or absence of myocardial injury. Basic information and laboratory indicators at admission were collected and compared between the two groups. LASSO regression was used to screen potential risk factors, followed by multivariate logistic regression to evaluate independent factors. A nomogram model was established and validated.
Results:
Out of 203 children with rotavirus infection, 53 cases (26.1%) showed myocardial injury. Age, severe dehydration, metabolic acidosis, red cell distribution width, and blood sodium were closely associated with myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea (P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the predictive model of myocardial injury was 0.841 (95%CI: 0.777-0.905), with a sensitivity of 73.6% and specificity of 85.3%. The model curve closely fit the ideal diagonal line. Decision curve analysis showed that using the model for prediction resulted in the highest net benefit when the probability threshold was 0.18-0.98.
Conclusions:
The model developed in this study can predict the risk of myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea.
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