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Identifying Key Predictors of Smoking Cessation Success: Text-Based Feature Selection Using a Large Language Model
Thuy T T Le1, Jiongxuan Yang2, Zimo Zhao3
1University of Michigan School of Public Health, Department of Health Management and Policy, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Quitting smoking significantly reduces health risks. This study used AI to identify key predictors of successful smoking cessation, including smoking frequency and social influences, to improve intervention effectiveness.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Behavioral Science
- Artificial Intelligence in Health Research
Background:
- Smoking cessation is crucial for reducing mortality and morbidity.
- Despite high quit attempt rates, successful cessation remains low, with only 10% succeeding in 2022.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify key predictors of smoking cessation success.
- To inform the development of more effective smoking cessation interventions.
- To increase successful quitting rates among smokers.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of data from waves 5 and 6 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study.
- Utilized OpenAI's GPT-4.1 to identify 45 predictive variables for 12-month smoking abstinence based on survey variable descriptions.
- Validated variable selection using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for variable ranking.
Main Results:
- XGBoost models trained with all variables and GPT-4.1 selected variables showed comparable performance (AUC: 0.749 vs 0.752).
- Top predictors of smoking abstinence included: 30-day smoking frequency, time to first cigarette, social influences (important people's views, associate's tobacco use), daily electronic nicotine product use, emotional dependence, and health harm concerns.
Conclusions:
- OpenAI's GPT-4.1 effectively identified key variables associated with long-term smoking abstinence using only variable descriptions.
- This AI-driven approach can enhance survey design and improve data collection efficiency for tobacco research.
- Findings can guide the development of targeted smoking cessation strategies.
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