Spatial spill-over effects of air pollution on mortality in Gansu Province, China

Currently, air pollution remains a significant factor affecting health. The aim of the study is to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of air pollutants in Gansu Province, China, as well as the direct effects and spatial spill-over effects of air pollutants on mortality rates in various regions of the province.

Panel data was collected from 2015-2022 (excluding 2020) and employed a panel spatial autoregressive model with fixed effects for both time and space, using three types of spatial weight matrices to explore the spatial impacts of air pollution on mortality rates among residents.

It was found that the mortality rate and degree of air pollution across various areas of Gansu were not randomly distributed, but showed obvious correlations and spatial aggregation characteristics. The median air quality index value significantly influenced the mortality rate of residents, and air pollution showed a spatial spill-over effect on the mortality rate. Mortality rates of the permanent population in a specific area were influenced not only by local air pollution but also by air pollution in neighbouring or economically-related areas. Numerical values of the direct and spatial spill-over effect of air pollution were calculated.

It was concluded that air pollution significantly impacts the mortality rate among Gansu's permanent residents through spatial spill-over effects. Collaborative efforts by governments across different regions are essential to mitigate the detrimental health effects of air pollution.