An age-period-cohort-interaction analysis of meth/amphetamine-related deaths in Australia, 2001-2020

The number of meth/amphetamine related deaths in Australia has quadrupled in the last 20 years, primarily due to drug toxicity and suicide among individuals in their 30s and 40s. Previous analysis of Australian meth/amphetamine-related deaths covered limited timeframes and causes, and there has been no exploration of the effects of changing cohorts on meth/amphetamine mortality. This paper provides comprehensive insights across 20 years into the evolving cohort trends in meth/amphetamine-related deaths in Australia.

An age-period-cohort-interaction (APC-I) analysis of Australian meth/amphetamine-related deaths (2001-2020) by cause extracted from the National Coronial Information System, a database of all deaths reported to the coroner in Australia and New Zealand.

APC-I analyses revealed that unintentional drug toxicity deaths peaked at ages 35-38 [Coefficient (Coef) = 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0-0.8], intentional self-harm deaths peaked at ages 31-34 (Coef = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.4-1.0), unintentional injury deaths peaked at ages 23-26 (Coef = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.2-0.8) and natural cause deaths at 39-42 (Coef = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.4-0.9). Period effects were consistent across all causes, with a mean 29.3% increase in estimated mortality rate from 2001 to 2012, followed by a mean 103.3% increase in estimated mortality rate to 2016, at which time period effects stabilised. Cohort effects revealed that individuals born between 1962 and 1982 (mainly Generation X) faced a higher-than-average mortality risk across all four causes, with risk decreasing in later generations.

Despite different age profiles across the various causes of death, cohort effects suggest a single generation (Generation X: people born between 1962 and 1982) is predominantly experiencing the increase in meth/amphetamine-related mortality observed in Australia over the past 20 years. As Generation X ages, the risk of meth/amphetamine-related natural deaths, especially from cardiovascular disease, is likely to increase.