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A modular deep learning surrogate model for simulating harmful algal blooms in complex process-based systems.

Young Woo Kim1, YoonKyung Cha1, Jihoon Shin1

  • 1School of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a deep learning surrogate model to efficiently simulate harmful algal blooms (HABs), improving accuracy and reducing computational costs for better water quality management.

Keywords:
Deep learningHarmful algal bloomHybrid modelingParameter optimizationProcess-based modelSurrogate model

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental modeling
  • Computational fluid dynamics
  • Machine learning applications in ecology

Background:

  • Process-based models (PBMs) for harmful algal blooms (HABs) face computational and calibration challenges, limiting large-scale application.
  • Existing calibration methods like trial-and-error (TE-PC) and data augmentation (DA) have limitations in accuracy and efficiency.
  • Accurate HAB simulation is crucial for water resource management and eutrophication mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a modular deep learning surrogate model to approximate PBM outputs for HAB simulation.
  • To enhance computational efficiency and predictive accuracy compared to traditional PBMs.
  • To enable near real-time HAB forecasting and improve water quality management.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a modular deep learning surrogate model emulating hydrodynamic (FLOW), water quality (WAQ), and phytoplankton (BLOOM) processes sequentially.
  • Integrated surrogate model outputs with probabilistic parameter optimization (SM-PO) for enhanced calibration.
  • Employed temporal dimensionality reduction to accelerate computation time for simulations and parameter optimization.

Main Results:

  • SM-PO significantly improved predictive accuracy for cyanobacteria counts (NSE to 0.930) and chlorophyll-a (40% RMSE reduction) compared to TE-PC.
  • Computation time was reduced by up to 96.4% for water quality and phytoplankton modules.
  • The surrogate model enabled one-day-ahead HAB forecasting using daily environmental inputs, bypassing full PBM simulations.

Conclusions:

  • The modular deep learning surrogate model offers a scalable, computationally efficient tool for HAB simulation and forecasting.
  • Integrating surrogate modeling with probabilistic parameter optimization enhances accuracy and efficiency in ecological modeling.
  • This framework provides a valuable advancement for operational water quality management and eutrophication mitigation in freshwater ecosystems.