Spatiotemporal distribution of sustained dengue hotspots associated with climate and urbanisation in Singapore

This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of sustained dengue hotspots in relation to climatic and urbanization factors in Singapore. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was employed to evaluate monthly dengue incidence and associated spatiotemporal hotspot patterns between May 2013 and March 2020. The combination of rainfall, temperature, population density, urbanization, building age and flood vulnerability was significantly correlated with dengue incidence in different subzones of Singapore. GWR results from 2013 to 2020 repeatedly (> 10 times) identified around 19 subzones of significance, where dengue incidence was highly influenced by a combination of population, climatic and urbanisation factors. The study found the distribution of dengue most prominently in the central and the eastern regions of Singapore. Majority of the highly significant subzones belonged to the east region (n = 8), covering 3.22% of the total area and a population of 512,680, followed by north-eastern subzones (n = 4) covering 0.92% of the total area with a population of 125,490, central subzones (n = 4) covering 1.22% of the total area with a population of 109,440, northern subzones (n = 2) with 0.52% of total area with a population of 152,860 and a subzone in the west covering 0.28% of total area with a population of 68,840. The study demonstrates potential application of GWR model with GIS for identifying sustained dengue hotspots in Singapore.