Reliability modeling framework of satellite constellation based on three-parameter interval grey number Lz...

Area of Science:

• Space Engineering
• Systems Engineering
• Reliability Engineering

Background:

• In-orbit communication satellites experience performance degradation over time, transitioning them into multistate systems.
• Assessing the reliability of these degrading multistate systems is challenging due to performance variability and data scarcity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a grey multi-state system model for reliability assessment of communication satellites.
• To address performance degradation and data scarcity in satellite reliability analysis.
• To incorporate performance levels exceeding thresholds into the reliability assessment.

Main Methods:

• Application of grey system theory to multistate systems.
• Development of a grey multi-state system model incorporating satellite structural characteristics.
• Integration of the grey universal generation function and grey Markov process.
• Utilization of three-parameter interval grey numbers and Lz transformation for dynamic reliability assessment.

Main Results:

• A dynamic reliability assessment model for multi-state communication satellites was developed.
• The model effectively mitigates challenges of high-dimensional state spaces in satellite systems.
• The approach provides robust methodological support for complex grey multistate systems.

Conclusions:

• The proposed model offers an effective method for dynamic reliability assessment of degrading communication satellites.
• This research enhances the reliability analysis of complex multistate systems under uncertainty.
• The methodology supports improved long-term operational planning and maintenance for communication satellites.