Cost-competitive offshore wind-powered green methanol production for maritime transport decarbonization

Stringent emission reduction goals and rising demand for clean maritime fuels have elevated green methanol as a promising low-cost alternative, which is supported by a mature and easily replicable technology. Here, we investigate the technical feasibility, economics, and development of offshore wind-powered green methanol production and supply to maritime transport within the European Union (EU). We analyze various system configurations, incorporating diverse electricity sources and carbon capture technologies, optimizing them to minimize the levelized cost of methanol (LCOM). The impact of the EU Emissions Trading System and FuelEU Maritime Regulation on the greenhouse gas emissions costs of conventional fuels is also assessed to evaluate the economic competitiveness of green methanol. Additionally, we forecast future LCOM changing trends based on technology trends and regulation restrictions. Results indicate that the produced green methanol can fully meet the EU regulations for renewable fuels. Furthermore, it has the potential to become cost-competitive with conventional fuels after 2030 and is expected to be uniformly less expensive by 2035. For different stakeholders, we present a series of technical and policy recommendations.