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  11. Research On The Prediction Model Of Gas Emission Based On Grey System Theory

Research on the prediction model of gas emission based on grey system theory

Liyang Bai1,2, Hui Geng3, Guangming Yu4

  • 1School of Civil Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao, 266033, China. 786661009@qq.com.

Scientific Reports
|July 2, 2025

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View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Accurate prediction of mining face gas emissions is crucial for safety and efficiency. A novel grey prediction model (GM (0,12)) significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to traditional methods.

Area of Science:

  • Mining Engineering
  • Environmental Science
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Accurate gas emission prediction is vital for preventing accidents, optimizing mining plans, and ensuring sustainable coal mine development.
  • Existing prediction methods may lack the precision required for effective mine safety management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a highly accurate prediction model for gas emission volume in mining faces.
  • To enhance the safety, efficiency, and environmental sustainability of coal mining operations through improved gas emission forecasting.

Main Methods:

  • A grey prediction model based on grey system theory was developed.
  • Grey correlation analysis was employed to identify and weight key influencing factors (e.g., gas content, depth, thickness).
  • The GM (0,12) model was validated against field data and compared with multiple linear regression.
Keywords:
GM(0,N) modelGas emission quantityGrey correlation degreeGrey theory

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Main Results:

  • Coal seam gas content, thickness, mining intensity, depth, and adjacent gas content were identified as the most significant factors influencing gas emissions.
  • The GM (0,12) model demonstrated excellent accuracy, with a relative error of 0.799%.
  • The GM (0,12) model significantly outperformed the multiple linear regression model (3.643% relative error).

Conclusions:

  • The proposed GM (0,12) model offers superior accuracy for predicting gas emission volumes in mining faces.
  • This advanced prediction capability supports safer, more efficient, and greener coal mining practices.
  • The grey system theory approach provides a robust framework for addressing complex environmental prediction challenges in the mining industry.
Multiple linear regression
Prediction