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Long-term spatial patterns in COVID-19 booster vaccine uptake.

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COVID-19 vaccine uptake, particularly boosters, is influenced by socio-demographic factors like deprivation and ethnicity. Understanding these patterns is key to equitable vaccine distribution and future public health strategies.

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Health Equity

Background:

  • Vaccination is crucial for controlling infectious diseases, exemplified by COVID-19.
  • Unequal vaccine uptake, influenced by socio-demographics, impacts disease burden.
  • Identifying uptake variations is vital for reducing hesitancy and improving access.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze COVID-19 booster vaccination patterns in Scotland.
  • To identify the influence of socio-demographic factors on vaccine uptake.
  • To develop a predictive model for future vaccination distributions.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of COVID-19 booster vaccinations by age, sex, dose, and location in Scotland.
  • Utilized Random Forests to model first booster uptake, linking to public demographic data.
  • Developed a predictive method for future uptake distributions based on deprivation trends.

Main Results:

  • Age and sex significantly impact model fit for vaccine uptake.
  • Community deprivation and minority ethnicity proportions substantially influence uptake.
  • Deprivation's impact on vaccine uptake is projected to increase over time, especially for second boosters.

Conclusions:

  • COVID-19 disproportionately affects deprived communities due to vaccine access disparities.
  • The methodology relies on public demographic and vaccination data, adaptable globally.
  • Findings inform strategies to enhance vaccine equity and address hesitancy.