Long-term spatial patterns in COVID-19 booster vaccine uptake

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Health Equity

Background:

• Vaccination is crucial for controlling infectious diseases, exemplified by COVID-19.
• Unequal vaccine uptake, influenced by socio-demographics, impacts disease burden.
• Identifying uptake variations is vital for reducing hesitancy and improving access.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze COVID-19 booster vaccination patterns in Scotland.
• To identify the influence of socio-demographic factors on vaccine uptake.
• To develop a predictive model for future vaccination distributions.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of COVID-19 booster vaccinations by age, sex, dose, and location in Scotland.
• Utilized Random Forests to model first booster uptake, linking to public demographic data.
• Developed a predictive method for future uptake distributions based on deprivation trends.

Main Results:

• Age and sex significantly impact model fit for vaccine uptake.
• Community deprivation and minority ethnicity proportions substantially influence uptake.
• Deprivation's impact on vaccine uptake is projected to increase over time, especially for second boosters.

Conclusions:

• COVID-19 disproportionately affects deprived communities due to vaccine access disparities.
• The methodology relies on public demographic and vaccination data, adaptable globally.
• Findings inform strategies to enhance vaccine equity and address hesitancy.