Prediction of First-Onset Cerebral Infarction Risk in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Retrospective

Zifeng Zeng1,2, Rongtai Luo1,2, Weiyong Xu1,2

  • 1Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Meizhou People's Hospital, Meizhou, People's Republic of China.

Insights

This study developed a new tool to predict stroke risk in heart attack patients. The nomogram helps doctors identify high-risk individuals for better care.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Neurology
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Cerebral infarction (CI) increases major adverse cardiovascular events in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients.
  • Early identification and intervention are crucial, but validated risk stratification tools are lacking.
  • This study addresses the need for individualized risk assessment of CI in AMI patients.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify the most valuable predictors (MVPs) of in-hospital first-onset CI in AMI patients.
  • To construct and validate a nomogram for individualized risk stratification of CI in AMI patients.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective cohort study of 1,350 AMI patients.
  • Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression for MVP selection.
  • Nomogram development and validation of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

Main Results:

  • CI occurred in 4.44% of patients.
  • Key predictors included Killip classification, PCI therapy, C-reactive protein (CRP), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR).
  • The nomogram demonstrated good discriminatory ability (0.804), calibration, and clinical utility, with an optimal cutoff of 0.035.

Conclusions:

  • A novel nomogram integrating multimodal predictors for in-hospital CI in AMI patients was developed and validated.
  • This tool can assist clinicians in decision-making for risk stratification.
  • The nomogram provides a valuable aid for identifying AMI patients at risk of developing CI during hospitalization.
Abstract

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