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Exploring structural changes in the Swedish cattle population and between-holding movements.

Ivana R Ewerlöf1, Jenny Frössling2, Madeleine Tråvén3

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Cattle movements in Sweden increased significantly, making disease spread potentially slower. Understanding these network changes is crucial for effective disease prevention strategies in livestock populations.

Keywords:
Disease preventionEpidemiologyLocation Change PatternNetwork analysisSurvival analysisSweden

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Network Analysis
  • Disease Ecology

Background:

  • Livestock movements are key drivers of infectious disease transmission.
  • Network analysis offers insights into disease spread dynamics.
  • Understanding cattle movement patterns is vital for epidemiological preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze cattle movement patterns in Sweden from 2005 to 2022.
  • To assess changes in the cattle movement network over time.
  • To identify risk factors associated with cattle movements.

Main Methods:

  • Classical network analysis.
  • Location Change Pattern (LCP) analysis for individual movements.
  • Survival analysis for movement risk factors.

Main Results:

  • Despite decreasing cattle numbers, movements increased substantially.
  • The cattle movement network became more disassortative with longer path lengths.
  • Clustering and reciprocity increased, potentially altering disease spread dynamics.
  • Male calves on holdings with many females had a higher risk of movement around 20 days of age.

Conclusions:

  • Significant temporal changes in the Swedish cattle population and movement network were observed.
  • These network dynamics suggest a potentially slower and smaller final epidemic size.
  • Movement patterns, especially for female cattle, contribute to disease spread dynamics.
  • Accounting for these changes is essential for robust disease prevention and control strategies.