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Estimation of fecundability from survey data.

N Goldman, C F Westoff, L E Paul

    Studies in Family Planning
    |September 1, 1985
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Estimating fecundability using survey data is challenging due to reporting errors. However, World Fertility Survey data suggests recent estimates are plausible and consistent with prior research on conception timing.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Reproductive Health
    • Survey Methodology

    Background:

    • Estimating fecundability, the probability of conception within a menstrual cycle, is crucial for understanding fertility trends.
    • Survey data presents methodological challenges, including recall bias and premarital conception risk, complicating accurate fecundability estimation.
    • Previous studies have attempted to quantify fecundability, but often face limitations in data quality and scope.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To assess the plausibility and consistency of fecundability estimates derived from World Fertility Survey (WFS) data.
    • To evaluate the impact of methodological issues on fecundability estimates from recent marriage cohorts.
    • To compare WFS-derived fecundability estimates with those from earlier demographic and fertility studies.

    Main Methods:

    Keywords:
    Age FactorsAmericasAsiaBirth HistoryBirth IntervalsCentral AmericaColombiaCosta RicaData AnalysisDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesEastern AsiaError SourcesEstimation TechnicsFecundabilityFecundityFertilityFertility MeasurementsFertility SurveysFirst Birth IntervalsIndirect Estimation TechnicsKoreaKorea, Republic OfLatin AmericaMalaysiaMarriage AgeMeasurementMexicoNatural FertilityNorth AmericaPanamaParaguayPopulationPopulation DynamicsReliabilityReproductionResearch MethodologyResearch ReportSampling StudiesSouth AmericaSoutheastern AsiaSouthern AsiaSri LankaStudiesSurveysTime FactorsWorld Fertility Surveys

    Related Experiment Videos

    • Analysis of fecundability estimates from the interval between marriage/union and first live birth conception.
    • Utilizing data from multiple World Fertility Surveys conducted among women married in recent years.
    • Comparison of WFS-derived estimates with historical fecundability data from previous research.

    Main Results:

    • Despite methodological challenges like date misreporting and premarital exposure, WFS-derived fecundability estimates appear plausible for most analyzed surveys.
    • The estimates show considerable consistency with findings from earlier studies on fecundability.
    • The focus on the first conception interval (marriage/union to first live birth) provides a specific measure of fecundability.

    Conclusions:

    • World Fertility Survey data can yield plausible estimates of fecundability, even with inherent methodological limitations.
    • Recent fecundability estimates are broadly consistent with historical data, suggesting stable reproductive patterns in studied populations.
    • The interval between union and first birth is a viable metric for assessing fecundability in large-scale surveys.