Monitoring water crisis from space across a Mediterranean region

Water scarcity, driven by climate change and increased drying trends in the Mediterranean region, presents severe water availability and agricultural production shortages, particularly in North Africa. Morocco, a country with arid to semi-arid conditions, is facing a growing water demand, exacerbated by extreme climatic events such as droughts and inefficient water management. The agricultural sector, the country's major water consumer, is a pillar of Morocco's economy. Public policy in the sector has increased irrigated surfaces, contributing to a severe water resources shortage. This study utilizes satellite-based radar data to evaluate the spatial extent and status of Moroccan dams from 2018 to 2024. By focusing on significant reservoirs, particularly the Al Massira dam in the Oum Er-Rbia basin, this investigation aims to assess changes in surface water area and analyze the underlying factors contributing to these variations. Satellite radar data offers a cost-effective and reliable method for monitoring water level changes across large surface areas, compensating for the scarcity of in-situ measurements. The study's findings reveal an apparent decrease in surface water areas across Moroccan reservoirs, with significant declines observed between 2021 and 2023. Al Massira dam, in particular, experienced severe declines in water storage, dropping to less than 3% of its capacity since 2023. This decline is attributed to ongoing drought conditions, which have persisted since 2017, and unsustainable water extraction driven by the expansion of water-intensive crops under national agricultural policies such as the Green Morocco Plan (GMP). Regional disparities in water availability were also highlighted. While southern reservoirs experienced drastic reductions, northern reservoirs exhibited more stable water levels, reflecting the heterogeneous impact of climatic variability and, thus, precipitation patterns across the country. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of radar data in monitoring dam water levels and underscore the urgent need for improved water management strategies, particularly in Morocco's central and southern regions, which rely heavily on reservoirs for agricultural and drinking water supplies.