Future soil erosion trends in Canadian agricultural lands from runoff and sustainability impacts

Human activities have significantly altered agricultural regions, leading to critical issues such as reduced soil fertility, biodiversity loss, and accelerated soil erosion. Despite their importance, reliable erosion maps for Canadian croplands remain scarce, hindering effective mitigation strategies. Here, we aimed to map erosion-prone areas in Canada by combining remote sensing and artificial intelligence methods under current and future climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our results revealed that, on a national average, soil erosion in Canada ranges from 4.72 to 6.64 t/ha/yr. All the scenarios indicate an increase in soil erosion over time. Soil degradation could become a more severe problem in the future. Our findings revealed that by 2030, 81,038 km² of agricultural land will experience high and severe erosion risks, indicating a significant 53.9% increase compared with that in 2020. The development of accurate soil erosion risk maps will not only enhance targeted conservation efforts but also serve as a critical tool for policymakers to implement effective soil management strategies, contributing to sustainable agriculture and climate resilience at a broader scale.